3D Printing Materials 2014-2025:
Status, Opportunities, Market Forecasts
3D printing is currently the subject of a great deal of
speculation and excitement in the media. Touted as the technology to bring
about the next industrial revolution and the in-sourcing of manufacturing jobs
back to the West, the term in fact refers to a raft of technologies each of
which is compatible for use with a particular material type.
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In
fact the materials market for 3D printing is possibly the most contentious
issue in the 3D printing industry today. 3D printer manufacturers are
increasingly engaging in practices which are perceived by end-users as
anti-competitive by locking customers in to their own materials supplies via
key-coding and RFID tagging of material cartridges, an activity which is
effectively enabling monopoly pricing of the materials concerned.
Development
of new materials for 3D printing is hindered by the practice of lock-in by some
3D printer manufacturers. Barriers to entry for 3rd party materials suppliers
are high, and those who do enter the market are unable to get the economies of
scale required to accelerate both materials development and progress towards a
competitive market.
In
the short to mid-term, downwards pressure on materials prices will be driven
mainly by new entrants to the 3D printer manufacture arena that do not engage
in lock-in practices and enable customers to source materials from the
supplier(s) of their choice, and also by pressure from large end-users wielding
buying power to force prices down.
This
report gives forecasts to 2025 for the following materials supplies:
- Photopolymers
- Thermoplastics in solid form (ie. filaments and pellets)
- Thermoplastics in powder form
- Metal powders
- Powder-bed inkjet powders
SWOT
analyses in each class are given and end-user requirements detailed.
Materials
in development but not yet commercial, which research is mainly taking place in
universities, are also discussed.
The
market for photopolymers will retain the largest single segment of the market
through to 2025 although the other materials markets will gain market share in
terms of tons produced driven largely by the move away from prototyping/tooling
applications towards final product manufacture.
Highest
growth will be seen in the market for metal powders, although production,
currently placed at less than 30 tons/year, will remain relatively low. This,
in combination with high raw material and processing prices, will combine such
that prices for these materials will fall more slowly than for alternative 3D
printing materials.
Market
growth in a business-as-usual scenario when lock-in remains common practice and
prices remain high will be steady, as illustrated below.
However,
extensive interviews with both materials developers and end-users indicate that
prices are falling. This will modulate growth of the market size even as mass
production increases in line with the growth of the cumulative installed base.
Further,
for any given material class, market size (in terms of $M) is more sensitive to
the installed base of the corresponding 3D printer technology than to the
actual price of the materials themselves. Should material prices increase, only
a small reduction in the average utilisation rate of the printer installed base
is required for the market size to actually fall as a result.
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Printed
and thin film transistor circuits will become a $180 million market in 10
years, from just $3 million in 2013. They will drive lighting, displays,
signage, electronic products, medical disposables, smart packaging, smart
labels and much more besides. The chemical, plastics, printing, electronics and
other industries are cooperating to make it happen. Already, over 500
organizations are developing printed transistors and memory, with first
products being sold commercially in 2009.
The
growth over the longer timescale, from 2013-2033, will be very similar to the
early growth of the silicon chip market in the same interval. In other words,
the twenty years from 1978 to 1998 saw a similar starting and finishing value
of sales of silicon chips. History is repeating itself with the printed
equivalent over the next twenty years, though not by taking much market share
from silicon chips in the first fifteen years. Do not follow the herd into the
well aired aspects of this subject. Gain advantage by understanding all the
important aspects and opportunities.
Who
should read this report
This
report addresses two types of reader. Industrialists, investors and researchers
with scientific training can read the report in the order presented. For the
first time, they will see the big picture of what is happening and about to
happen across the whole world in this subject. This includes the profiles,
activities and intentions of 150 leading organizations in this field. We
analyze and compare what is happening in 16 countries. Such information is not
gathered in any other document. The report also gives the rapidly evolving
choices of materials, device designs, chemistry and manufacturing processes for
these devices - again a unique analysis. However, this report will also be
useful for those with only a rudimentary understanding of science and engineering
who seek to understand how the printed electronics revolution will greatly
benefit society while creating billion dollar businesses and when and where
this will happen.
We
start with some descriptions appropriate for the beginner, opening up the
subject with as little complexity and jargon as possible.
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